Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
