How This Bizarre Season Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.
Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.
On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.
Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans improving together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.
This is how the projected ballot should shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record
Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.
Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.
During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!
The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record
Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.
Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.
The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.
Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.
Still
